Obama's Logic-Defying Odds of Winning

Earlier this week, statistics-messiah Nate Silver reported that his forecast model gave Barack Obama a 70.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, the President's highest number to date.  (The number actually went up slightly with today's jobs numbers, to 71.1%.)  So, despite the fact that the national unemployment rate is 8.3%, with the economy just barely creating enough new jobs to keep up with population growth, Obama is still the odds-on favorite to win in November.  That's insane, people.

If the economy is indeed the most important issue to voters, and if voters prefer Romney to Obama on the economy, then it stands to reason that Romney should be the favorite, doesn't it?  In fact, I can only think of one explanation for this discrepancy, and it's that everyone in America hates Mitt Romney personally.  ("Gee, Mitt, we really think you'd do a better job than the other guy of solving our most important problem, but we just find you so darn creepy, is the thing."  That's hurtful, America.)

Still, it could be worse for the GOP.  Imagine if they'd nominated this guy - we'd be falling all over ourselves to elect Obama president-for-life, probably...